Hungary's Bumpy Road Ahead

The close finish between the two main contenders shows that while the Socialists may be down, they are definitely not out.

The result of the second round in Hungary's parliamentary elections almost guarantees that the country's political scene will maintain a certain momentum. Although there was only a modest improvement in the number of voters who cast ballots, (57% of eligible voters cast ballots, up five percent from the previous round), the final standing of the political parties nevertheless indicates a realignment of sorts. This will be the first time since the end of the communist era that a government based on coalition politics will rule the country.

The Hungarian Civic Party (FIDESZ-MPP), originally known as the Young Democrats, was able to steal victory from the Socialists in a race which was so tight that it was not clear who would win. In the end, FIDESZ finished with a comeback total of 148 of 386 seats, with the Socialists coming a close second with 134. Representing 38% and 34% respectively, this was a reversal of first round results which saw the Socialists with 32.25% of the votes compared to FIDESZ's 28.19%.

The choice now before FIDESZ is with whom to form a coalition. The most likely outcome will be a three-party coalition between FIDESZ and the right-wing Smallholders and the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF). This will not only put Hungary's two left-wing parties in opposition (i.e. the Socialists and the Free Democrats), but will also isolate the far-right Hungarian Truth and Justice Party (MIÉP) of István Csurka.

This doesn't mean that the leader of FIDESZ, Viktor Orbán, will have an easy time with his prospective partners. In particular, there is the leader of the Smallholders, József Torgyán, who is reknown for his bombastic behaviour. Admitting that he faced a tough period of negotiations ahead, Orbán cryptically hinted that he had no problems of sharing power with the Smallholders - that is, a Smallholders party without Torgyán.

Orbán's options, however, are limited. The Smallholders are the third largest party in parliament with 48 seats (12%). The only other possibility would be a coalition with the Socialists, an idea which, although rumored during the interim period between rounds, was tacitly rejected by Orbán during the press conference after the election.

No matter how he tries to avoid the issue, Orbán is actually indebted to the Smallholders. They had tactfully withdrew candidates from 82 ridings in order to not compete with FIDESZ and split the vote. In fact, this is was what perhaps made the difference between victory and defeat, for in most areas the margin of victory was slim, sometimes by only a couple of votes.

Indeed, the close finish between the two main contenders shows that while the Socialists may be down, they are definitely not out. Their former coalition partners, on the other hand, suffered badly and may not recover from the blow. They finished a disappointing fourth with only 24 seats (6%). Consequently, the leader of the party, Gábor Kuncze, has already submitted his resignation and a party congress is being called for June, almost half a year ahead of their scheduled date in November.

Even though Orbán may be savouring the taste of victory at the moment, he faces some difficult challenges ahead. One of them has to do with a looming constitutional crisis over proportional representation and the ability to form parliamentary factions. As the present law stands, a party needs 5% of the popular vote to first make it to parliament, and then must be able to obtain a minimum of 15 seats in order to form a faction. The far-right MIÉP secured 5.5% of the popular vote, but failed by only one seat to form their own faction. Meanwhile, the more moderate and prospective coalition partner, the MDF, had failed to secure the necessary 5% but nevertheless ended up with 17 seats in parliament. The way in which they were able to do this was by FIDESZ stepping back and supporting MDF candidates in several ridings during the second round.

What has many observers wondering is how the new government will resolve this apparent contradiction of a party obtaining a substantial number of seats in parliament without popular support. In this case, the MDF only received about 3% of the popular vote but was able to retain roughly the same percentage of seats in parliament. On the other hand, although MIÉP was able to receive the support required, this support has not been translated in the number of parliamentary seats nor, more importantly, the ability to form a faction in parliament.

For FIDESZ, the strategy of supporting the MDF was simply not only to avoid splitting the vote and giving the Socialists a better chance, it was also to contain MIÉP. While such a tactic is apparently legal, it nevertheless has raised questions as to the fairness of the electoral system. Although many are wary of Csurka and the MIÉP, they also realize that such democratic loopholes need to be plugged. Csurka, meanwhile, has vowed to go as far as the constitutional court in order to seek redress.

The way FIDESZ handles this and other issues early on it its term will subsequently be monitored very closely. What will especially be interesting to see is how they will deliver on their campaign promise to provide tuition-free post-secondary education for undergraduate students starting this September.

For the moment, reaction from outside the country to the results of the election is one of raised eyebrows. The stock market in Budapest fell substantially during the interim period when news was heard of the rise of the right. At the same time, western media had done much to try and bolster the image of the ruling coalition, as exemplified by an article on the election in the Economist entitled "Will they be grateful?".

Much work lies ahead and it may very well be a bumpy road to the end of the millennium. But the problems facing the country are acute. Unless they are addressed in an appropriate manner, Hungary could slip back to what Misha Glenny (The Rebirth of History, 1990) termed the "politics of the backwardness". Hence, the 1998 elections could be an indicator of things to come, such as rough times ahead - or of a new beginning.