Ansicht umschalten
Avatar von tiferet
  • tiferet

mehr als 1000 Beiträge seit 28.04.2020

Der hier nur den Herrn Köhle vertritt

der zu beweisen versucht dass die beobachtete Übersterblichkeit auf den erhöhten Anteil an Älteren in der Gesamtpopulation und den allgemeinen Bevölkerungswachstum zurückzuführen sei.

http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/hoehleatsu/hoehleatsu.github.io/blob/master/figure/source/2020-12-28-mort/up2date/mort-current.html

Wie der dann aber selber bemerkt:

Finally, as seen from the population adjusted graphs, the mortality incidence has currently a strong upward trend in the older age groups and the analysis is currently only up to week 50. It it thus too early to make general statements about the year 2020 - also because the 2020 population numbers are currently projections. In a recent press release Destatis announced that the population in 2020 might not have increases as projected, because of a smaller migration surplus, higher mortality and lower birth numbers. As a consequence, Destatis estimates that the 2020 population consisted of 83.20 mio (no population increase compared to 2019) individuals whereas in the G2-L2-W2 projection variant the projection was 83.38 mio (population increase by 0.3% compared to 2019). Final figures, including more detailed age-stratified data, will be available mid 2021 and it will be interesting to see how these impact the excess mortality calculations.

Bewerten
- +
Ansicht umschalten