Im Gegensatz zu deiner ungebildeten Meinung auf diesem Gebiet, ist
der Effekt von der Erhöhung der CO2 Konzentration auf das Globale
Klima sehr exakt unter den Klimatologen bekannt. Ich habe gerade erst
gestern das folgende auf English geschrieben:
Climate reconstruction is not the point of contention here. The point
of contention is climate sensitivity to CO2 emissions.
And here, there is no discussion that man made CO2 emissions cause a
positive rise in global temperature. The effect of doubling the CO2
concentration from pre-industrial levels will cause
* +1°C global equilibrium temperature due to changes in the
radiative properties of the atmosphere
* This in turn causes an increase in water vapour in the
atmosphere which will lead to another +1°C increase of the global
equilibrium temperature
* These two effects are modelled accurately. There is no
systematic error in these numbers
These two effects are by a large margin the biggest effects of
doubling the earth's CO2 concentration. The error margins for these
two effects are mostly numerical.
There often cited range of 1.5 to 4.5k increase of global temperature
is a very old one. Using models which properly discretize earth leads
to a margin of 2°C for the most basic models to slightly more than
3°C for the most advanced and elaborate models.
The models predicting more than that were all simpler global energy
balance models which did not discretize earth's surface and oceans.
I'll give you citations when I am at home and can get hold of the
papers.
Btw. it is right that according to these effects our climate should
have heated up by approx. 1°C already. The reason why this hasn't
happened yet is mainly due to two factors:
* SOx emissions reduce global temperatures. The effect of
including a full sulphur cycle into models is the current focus of
climate modellers.
* The rate of temperature increase as well as rate of CO2
increase is simply too fast to reach an equilibrium condition. The
previously stated numbers were all equilibrium condition numbers...
Referenzen:
RealClimate.org
2004 Storch & O&B
der Effekt von der Erhöhung der CO2 Konzentration auf das Globale
Klima sehr exakt unter den Klimatologen bekannt. Ich habe gerade erst
gestern das folgende auf English geschrieben:
Climate reconstruction is not the point of contention here. The point
of contention is climate sensitivity to CO2 emissions.
And here, there is no discussion that man made CO2 emissions cause a
positive rise in global temperature. The effect of doubling the CO2
concentration from pre-industrial levels will cause
* +1°C global equilibrium temperature due to changes in the
radiative properties of the atmosphere
* This in turn causes an increase in water vapour in the
atmosphere which will lead to another +1°C increase of the global
equilibrium temperature
* These two effects are modelled accurately. There is no
systematic error in these numbers
These two effects are by a large margin the biggest effects of
doubling the earth's CO2 concentration. The error margins for these
two effects are mostly numerical.
There often cited range of 1.5 to 4.5k increase of global temperature
is a very old one. Using models which properly discretize earth leads
to a margin of 2°C for the most basic models to slightly more than
3°C for the most advanced and elaborate models.
The models predicting more than that were all simpler global energy
balance models which did not discretize earth's surface and oceans.
I'll give you citations when I am at home and can get hold of the
papers.
Btw. it is right that according to these effects our climate should
have heated up by approx. 1°C already. The reason why this hasn't
happened yet is mainly due to two factors:
* SOx emissions reduce global temperatures. The effect of
including a full sulphur cycle into models is the current focus of
climate modellers.
* The rate of temperature increase as well as rate of CO2
increase is simply too fast to reach an equilibrium condition. The
previously stated numbers were all equilibrium condition numbers...
Referenzen:
RealClimate.org
2004 Storch & O&B