DrM schrieb am 01.06.2024 12:15:
kodu schrieb am 01.06.2024 11:48:
Ohne den „Einfluss“ des US-Außenministeriums (Stichwort: „Fuck the EU“) hätte es den Anschluss der Krim an Russland und die folgenden Ereignisse, bis hin zum aktuell nahezu täglich steigenden Eskalationslevel vermutlich gar nicht gegeben.
Das ist doch Quark.
Russland hätte sich einfach eine andere Ausrede zur Annexion der Krim und der Landbrücke zur Krim gesucht.
Was diesen Krieg zuverlässig verhindert hätte, wäre die Mitgliedschaft der Ukraine in der NATO gewesen.
Der ehemalige Berater von Präsident Selenskyj, Arestowitsch sagte in einem Interview 2019:
Q: If Ukraine wants to join NATO, then we can talk about some deadlines for the end of the war?
A: No, there are no end-of-war deadlines. In the contrary it will probably lead to a massive military operation by Russia against Ukraine. Because they have to destroy us in terms of infrastructure and turn everything into devastation territory so they don't want us....
Q: So Russia can go to direct confrontation with NATO?
A: No, not with NATO. We're not gonna make it... They have to do it before we join NATO so NATO won't be interested in us. Thy won't be interested because of the devastation. With a 99.9% probability, the price for our entry into NATO is a major war with russia.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DwcwGSFPqIo
Und was Herr Arestowitsch 2019 als Realität erkannt hat, war auch schon vor 2014 als die "stärkste rote Linie" für Russland hinlänglich bekannt. Dafür gibt es genug Belege in den diplomatischen Depeschen auf Wikileaks.
So schrieb unter anderem der US-Botschafter in Moskau, William Burns, am 1. Februar 2008:
Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does
Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions
in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In
that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html#efmBTnBfi
Und späternoch einmal an die damalige US-Außenministerin Rice:
"Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin. In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” NATO, he said, “would be seen … as throwing down the strategic gauntlet. Today’s Russia will respond. Russian-Ukrainian relations will go into a deep freeze...It will create fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.”
https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-summer-2022-issue-no.21/the-causes-and-consequences-of-the-ukraine-war
Russland hatte doch erst 2010 eine Verlängerung der Pacht für Sewastopol bis 2042 bekommen...
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, today agreed to extend the lease on Russia's naval base in the Crimea, in the most explicit sign yet of his new administration's tilt towards Moscow.
Yanukovych said the lease on Russia's Black Sea fleet that was due to expire in 2017 will be prolonged for 25 years, until 2042 at least. His announcement follows a meeting with Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev in Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine. In return, Medvedev said Russia would offer Ukraine a discount on its gas bills: he said Moscow would slash the price Kiev pays for 1,000 cubic metres of Siberian gas by $100 (£65) from its current rate of $330, with a 30% discount if the price falls.
The deal is the most concrete sign yet that Ukraine is now back under Russia's influence following Yanukovych's victory in February's presidential elections. It appears to mark the final nail in the coffin of the Orange Revolution of 2004.
Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, had vowed to eject Russia's Black Sea fleet from the port of Sevastopol, arguing that its presence was an affront to Ukraine's sovereignty and a destabilising factor in Crimea, a majority ethnic Russian region with a strong pro-Soviet mood.
Today, Ukrainian officials insisted Ukraine still plans to join the EU, and to integrate with transatlantic institutions. "We want to move towards the west. But the best way of doing this is to get gas from the east," a foreign ministry spokesman said. "The Black Sea fleet isn't any threat to Ukraine's independence."
The agreement is a boost for Yanukovych as he tries to lever Ukraine's economy out of severe recession, and to clinch a $12bn bailout loan from the IMF. Russia currently pays $90m per year for the base. It was not clear if the rent has now gone up. But the lease extension is likely to increase opposition to Yanukovych in Ukraine's western provinces.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/apr/21/ukraine-black-sea-fleet-russia
... somit gab es überhaupt keine Veranlassung die Krim zu übernehmen.
Du behauptest, die Motive und Absichten der russischen Regierung zu kennen, ohne auch nur einen einzigen Beleg für deine These ins Feld führen zu können.
Das Posting wurde vom Benutzer editiert (01.06.2024 13:23).