> Wenn ein Masse bzw. deren Durchschnitt intelligent ist, dann
> trifft das auch auf ein ganzes Volk zu. Wozu bitte Wettbörsen?
Eine Erklärung dafür ist dies:
Prediction markets forecast accurately because
poorly informed traders provide a clear
opportunity for better-informed traders to
make money. Better-informed traders who express
their confidence by making large trades
can be sure to collect when an event either
does or does not occur, at a known time in the
near future. For example, if a better-informed
trader knows that the asset is undervalued (i.e.,
the event is more likely to occur relative to the
prevailing market opinion), he will buy the
asset from the poorly informed traders. Thus,
substitutability again diminishes the impact of
less rational actors.
Quelle:
http://www.iew.unizh.ch/home/fehr/science/Camerer-Fehr_SciencePaper.p
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