The Capture of Karadzic

Will justice be served?

After a decade on the run, Radovan Karadzic was finally captured and is set to face justice in The Hague. It's still unclear, however, exactly how Karadzic was finally caught, although the details surrounding his arrest will no doubt emerge as time goes on. Nevertheless, Eurocrats in Brussels are celebrating the news that one OF Europe's most wanted men have finally been caught.

The news of Karadzic's capture has been especially uplifting for those who have pushed for Serbia's integration with the EU. Some were adamant that this topic should not even be mentioned until Belgrade handed over both Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. Others felt, however, that only by offering a few incentives is there any hope that Karadzic and Mladic would one day be handed over to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague (ICTY). It now looks as if the latter view had indeed led to some success, albeit a partial one, which will only strengthen the hand of those in Brussels who are seeking to offer more incentives to Serbia.

Meanwhile, Serbia is now expecting more concessions from Eurocrats as it strives to join the EU. There is no doubt that handing Karadzic over to the authorities in The Hague is a big gamble for Serb politicians as many wish to maintain the support of right-wing voters. On the other hand, they also realize that future accession to the European Union also hangs in the balance.

The fragility of the situation can be best seen in the riots which occurred when news of Karadzic's arrest had become known. Yet times have changed in Serbia. Most Serbs now want to put the painful past behind them. Ever since the independence of Kosovo many have come to regard Serbia's present state as a fait accompli, and that there is now little they can do to change events. As a result, they see that the future of Serbia now lies within the EU, and the hope of economic growth and prosperity that EU accession is expected to bring.

The feeling that the times have changed in the Balkans is also apparent among the foreign troops still stationed in various parts of the former Yugoslavia. Five years ago it was felt that nationalist sentiment was still very strong, so strong that some observers noted that it wasn't worth the risk sending troops in to snatch Karadzic or Mladic, even if they knew where they were. Indeed, in November 2004 British defence officials conceded that military action was unlikely to be successful in bringing war crime suspects to trial. Putting political pressure on the governments would be more likely to succeed instead.

Some observers also went so far as to assert that there was a secret deal between the French and possibly American government concerning Karadzic and Mladic. According to this view, there was a tacit agreement whereby Karadzic and Mladic would be left alone as one of the conditions for securing peace in the Balkans.

It will take more than bringing a few indicted war criminals to justice to heal the wounds of the past

Although Karadzic is now in custody and will certainly face trial, it's another question altogether whether justice will actually be served. For those who still believe in some sort of collusion between western powers and the Serb authorities, it is believed that the trial of Karadzic will not end with a guilty verdict in much the same way that Slobodan Milosevic was able to avoid a guilty verdict. In other words, there is a fear among many in Bosnia and elsewhere in the region that the trial of Karadzic will be drawn out long enough so that the accused will simply die in prison before the trial is actually concluded.

While for some victims this is may be good enough, for others it represents a case of justice denied. At the same time, for Serb nationalists such an end will only heighten the martyr status of their hero. Added to all this is the lingering stigma of victor's justice as the war crimes committed by NATO and the UN continues to not even be acknowledged by the ICTY. Among the crimes cited by independent lawyers, the UN in general -- and the Dutch government in particular -- were guilty for allowing the Srebrenica massacre to occur. Also, no-one was prosecuted from the winning side during the war against Serbia in 2000 for such crimes as the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets and the use of banned weapons such as depleted uranium shells and cluster bombs.

Sadly, although the times have changed somewhat in Serbia and that the arrest if Karadzic appears to usher in a new chapter in the post cold war history of the former Yugoslavia, the fact remains that in essence not much has changed at all. The different ethnic groups within the region hate each other as much as before, and in various places around Bosnia and Kosovo, not to mention the northern region of Vojvodina, tensions are still high as a low-level form of ethnic cleansing continues unabated -- in many cases with the Serbs as victims. Indubitably, it will take a lot more than simply bringing a few indicted war criminals to justice to fully heal the wounds of the past.