Keine Bombe vor 2010

“We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons“.
High confidence generally indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment.
A “high confidence” judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong.
Seite 5. In: Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible, but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence. Seite 5, ebd.

High confidence generally indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment. A “high confidence” judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong. Seite 5, ebd.