The Final Blow

Yugoslavia is officially dead

Although the state of Yugoslavia in reality hasn't existed for many years and was effectively destroyed during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, last weekend's referendum in Montenegro finally sealed its fate. Despite futile attempts of Serb leaders to stall at recognising the result, the writing was on the wall. Eventually they also acknowledged the independent aspirations of Montenegrins.

Yet voting for independence was the easy part. Unfortunately, the post Cold War history of Central and Eastern Europe is one of failed states. Much of this failure is due to the fact that national aspirations have often blinded people to geo-political realities. One of the major problems is the belief that if a group or region could just be independent, then the doors of prosperity would immediately be open to them and they would then be able to live in happiness and peace forever.

Little did the nations of Central and Eastern Europe realise, however, that for western governments the exact opposite has been the case. The past fifteen years has been one of divide and conquer, to the extent that each country within the region has been competing fiercely against one another in order to curry favour from transnational corporations and thus secure some sort of economic gain. Cooperation is out of the question; so too, it seems, is the utopian dream of peace and prosperity in the post Cold War era.

The states of the former Yugoslavia provide a sad case in point. True, some states have made substantial progress and were able to benefit socially, politically, and economically from the breakup of Yugoslavia, as was the case with Slovenia. Most others, however, are more or less at the same point where they were. Moreover, without substantial assistance from the outside -- both financial and military -- they would be still mired in civil conflict. Indeed, in some parts of the region, such as in Kosovo, a form of low-intensity ethnic cleansing is being waged against ethnic minorities.

Without a doubt, the Achilles Heel for Montenegro will be the issue of minorities and minority rights. With Serbs making up almost a third of the population, this tiny new country in Europe can expect some trouble ahead. Unfortunately, it's not a problem unique to the former states of Yugoslavia. It is a problem which is endemic to the entire region, including Romania with its huge Hungarian minority and Estonia with its sizable Russian minority.

Traditionally, the minority issue has not been much of a concern among most Montenegrins. Until the 1990s, the relationship between the two largest groups, Montenegrins and Serbs, have been quite good. The two groups share a lot in common; however with the disaster of the Balkan wars, association with Serbia carried with it negative connotations. For this reason, the politics of Milo Dukanovics and many Montenegrins shifted in 1997 toward the notion of full independence.

Now that full independence has become a reality, Dukanovics and the others who had promised that Montenegro would be better off economically and politically have a lot to deliver. Much hope is being placed on the country's strip of Adriatic coast which it is hoped will soon become a hotspot for tourists. A similar hope had been shared by other states of the former Yugoslavia, yet with the exception of Croatia none have been able to realise their dream of turning their country into a major tourist destination.

One reason for this is the continuing instability within the region, especially in Kosovo and around Bosnia. Another is a lack of infrastructure. Thus, what may in the end push Montenegro toward political instability in the near future are expectations which are too high to be met in the short term.

So far, however, it appears that Montenegro's leaders have adopted a pragmatic and careful approach toward independence. They have indicated that they will not issue a unilateral declaration of independence and instead foresee negotiations with Serbia lasting for "a few weeks or up to two to three months" before formal separation occurs. Until then, the foundations upon which the future prosperity of the new state need to be built. Whether or not these foundations will be built upon sand remains to be seen.